Heat wave in Europe: Is El Niño really to blame? What to expect this summer

According to Ioanna Vergini, founder of the weather platform WYF24, attributing the current heat wave in Europe to El Niño risks diverting attention from the main cause: global warming.

Temperatures above 40°C, tropical nights, wildfires already widespread, and the death toll rising day by day. Western Europe is in the grip of its third heat wave of 2026. And while many point the finger at El Niño, other experts urge us to look elsewhere: the real culprit is climate change caused by human activities.

In France, more than half of the departments have been placed on red alert for a heat wave. Authorities have urged citizens to exercise extreme caution and avoid direct exposure to the sun. In several regions of the country, temperatures have exceeded 40°C, and nighttime temperatures have never dropped below 20°C, resulting in what are known as “tropical nights.”

The United Kingdom is also facing exceptional conditions. The Met Office has issued a “red heatwave warning” for several areas in central and southern England as well as in Wales, where highs of up to 39°C are expected. High humidity, which increases heat stress and health risks, makes the situation even more dangerous.

In Germany, however, concern is growing over wildfires, particularly in the southern and eastern regions. Cities such as Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and Bonn are bracing for temperatures to approach 40°C in the coming days.

El Niño: The ideal culprit?

In early June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the development of conditions favorable to El Niño in the tropical Pacific. The news immediately caught the media’s attention, which began linking this phenomenon to the current record-breaking heat in Europe. According to many climatologists, however, this interpretation could be misleading.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the eastern Pacific become abnormally warmer. This can contribute to an increase in the global average temperature and influence weather patterns in many regions of the world. However, its direct impact on European summers is believed to be limited.

The Pacific is not currently experiencing a strong El Niño event, and even when it is, its direct influence on European summer heat waves is minimal, explains Ioanna Vergini, founder of WYF24.

According to the expert, what we are observing is instead a classic atmospheric blocking phenomenon associated with the jet stream: a sort of high-pressure dome that traps hot air for days or weeks.

The heat dome is the mechanism. Long-term global warming acts as an amplifier.“El Niño isn’t really to blame,” Vergini asserts.

Where are the effects of El Niño truly felt?

When El Niño occurs, its most pronounced effects are felt primarily in tropical regions. It can cause flooding in certain areas of South America, such as northern Peru, but also in parts of East Africa and the southern United States. At the same time, it increases the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia, Indonesia, and vast regions of South America.

In Europe, however, the consequences tend to be indirect and are felt mainly in the fall and winter, with milder, wetter, and windier seasons.

Scientists point out that El Niño is a cyclical phenomenon that comes and goes, whereas climate change continues to worsen year after year. Historically, an El Niño event can raise the global average temperature by about 0.2°C. By comparison, human-caused warming has already raised the planet’s surface temperature by about 1.3 to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

That is why, even when El Niño makes an appearance, its effects compound those of an already overheating planet.

What can we expect for the rest of the summer?

Meanwhile, Europe is warming at a rate faster than the global average. European temperatures have already risen by about 2.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels—more than double the average global increase.

According to experts, the coming weeks could be marked by new heat waves, interspersed with stormy periods that are more intense than normal. In a gradually warming climate, conditions conducive to the formation of “heat domes” are becoming more likely and more persistent. This translates into an increased risk of extreme temperatures and severe weather events, including thunderstorms, hailstorms, and intense rainfall concentrated over a few hours.

In any case, scientists agree on one point: summers like the one we are currently experiencing are becoming less and less exceptional and are increasingly part of the broader context of the climate crisis.