Five years of record heat ahead: we're on the brink of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, warns the UN

According to scientists, the next five years could mark a new phase in the climate crisis, with global temperatures set to remain at or very close to record levels for the long term.

The alert has been sounded by the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) new "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update". According to this report, between 2026 and 2030, the average global temperature could be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

The most worrying statistic? There is a 91% probability that at least one of the next five years will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C global warming, the symbolic limit of the Paris Agreement. To this end, there is also an 86% probability that a new temperature record will be broken, surpassing the record set in 2024, so far the hottest year on record.

2027 could be the hottest year on record

Of all the years being closely monitored, 2027 is the one that most worries experts. WMO forecasts indicate a possible return of El Niño between late 2026 and early 2027. This climatic phenomenon, which manifests itself on average every two to seven years through abnormal warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, tends to amplify the global warming already underway.

This is what happened between 2023 and 2024, when the combination of climate change and El Niño helped propel global temperatures to unprecedented levels. The new simulations show a higher risk of El Niño development especially in 2027 and 2028, increasing the risk of new records.

What "exceeding 1.5°C" really means

The 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement doesn't refer to a single year's temperature, but to the average recorded over a period of around twenty years. The fact that one year temporarily exceeds this limit doesn't mean that the target has been missed for good. But it's a clear indicator of the direction in which we are heading.

And in any case, the trend seems unequivocal: the probability of years with temperatures rising above 1.5°C is increasing year on year.

The Arctic remains one of the most vulnerable areas: according to the report, over the next five winters, temperatures in the Arctic region will be on average 2.8°C higher than values observed over the period 1991-2020. This anomaly is more than three times greater than the global average.

And the consequences are already visible. Climate models predict a further reduction in sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea between Norway and Russia, in the Bering Sea between Alaska and Siberia, and in the Sea of Okhotsk between eastern Russia and Japan. This loss does not only concern polar ecosystems: Arctic ice plays a fundamental role in regulating the climate of the entire planet.

The last five years are already telling the future

In fact, many of the changes predicted are already taking place before our very eyes. 2025 was one of the three hottest years on record worldwide, with an average temperature of around 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels. Between 2021 and 2025, warming was particularly intense in Europe, North America, North Africa and, above all, the Arctic.

For WMO scientists, the message is clear: it's no longer a question of whether the planet will continue to warm, but of how quickly we can reduce emissions to limit the impact of warming that is already reshaping ecosystems, water resources and living conditions in many parts of the world.