Cinque Terre May Disappear: Will villages of Monterosso and Vernazza soon be underwater?

Italy’s most famous coastal paradise is suddenly proving to be fragile, caught in the grip of environmental change that threatens its very survival. The villages of Monterosso and Vernazza, at the heart of the Cinque Terre National Park, face the threat of partial submersion as sea levels continue to rise.

The scientific warning was issued following the publication, in the international journal Remote Sensing, of a comprehensive study titled "The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy).” The report maps the growing vulnerability of coastal areas, thereby redefining the scope of the threat to tourism and mobility in Liguria.

Precision technology applied to IPCC climate models

The project is the result of the work of a multidisciplinary team that brought together the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the CNR Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering (IGAG), supported by the University of Basilicata, the park management body, and academic partners based in Thessaloniki, Paris, and Nijmegen.

In order to develop future flood models, experts cross-referenced very high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data with historical tide gauge records, geodetic field surveys, and numerical simulations of wave motion. This complex computational model was calibrated using global climate projections provided by the IPCC, revealing a rising sea level trend that is far from stable.

Giant waves poised to hit the railroad

The numerical estimates described by the research coordinators, Marco Anzidei of the INGV and Alessandro Bosman of the CNR, indicate that by 2150 the average water level in the Ligurian region will rise by between 0.60 and 1.17 meters. This geographical shift will drastically reduce small beaches and submerge low-lying port jetties.

The situation will become catastrophic during extreme weather events: calculations of wave run-up predict peaks exceeding 13 meters in height during the most violent storms. Such an impact on the coastline would endanger the strategic infrastructure of the local railway line, the only link connecting the villages of the Riviera.

The cost of inaction and urgent countermeasures to save the region

The urgency of launching mitigation plans is also underscored by the significant economic considerations raised by the European Central Bank, which estimates the annual cost to manage sea-level rise within the European Union by 2080.

Italy, characterized by a high degree of coastal development, must act proactively to avoid losing its heritage. It's precisely for this reason that this study becomes a fundamental tool for territorial planning for Ligurian municipalities, urging local governments to plan for adaptation—upgrading port quays, the restructuring of urban drainage systems, and the reinforcement of protective barriers to safeguard tourism infrastructure.

Source: Remote Sensing